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Treasury's Write-Off & Premiumization Push - Quench Report Issue #19

Bev Alc Consumption Shifts, Beatbox Finally Closes, Job Hobs and more

Welcome to Issue #19 of The Quench Report, the newsletter that raises a glass and delivers the latest and greatest in Beverage Alcohol and the broader Beverage category.

Whatโ€™s on tap for today:

  • ๐Ÿท Treasury Wrote Of $450M, But Check Out This Premiumization Story

  • ๐Ÿฅƒ ~50 Years of Bev Alc Category Shifts in One Chart

  • ๐Ÿ†• Beatbox Finally Closes Their Deal with ABI

  • ๐Ÿ”ฅ Hot Jobs Worth Applying To

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WHATโ€™S ON TAP - UPCOMING

๐Ÿ“Š Dec 9
โ€ข Nielsen data through Nov 29
โ€ข Circana data through Nov 30

 ๐Ÿท TREASURY WROTE OFF $450M, BUT CHECK OUT THIS PREMIUMIZATION STORY

Last week, Treasury Wine Estates announced a massive $687M AUS ($450M USD) write-off of their U.S. business. The reason? Moderating wine sales and more conservative long-term growth assumptions.

Ouch.

But here's what caught our eye: despite the write-down, Treasury has pulled off one hell of a transformation over the past decade. Their Americas business has tripled net sales per case over 10 years. That's not a typo.

They did it through luxury acquisitions, ditching value brands, and laser focus on premium. It's an incredible premiumization story, way more aggressive than we expected.

Check out the evolution below: ๐Ÿ‘‡๏ธ 

๐Ÿง Our Thoughts

Slow Slog: Wine is still essentially a scale game, even if people talk more about scale in other categories. Premiumization is brutal when shedding value brands sets you back years. Treasury clearly still has headwinds (hence the write-off), but the shift they've made is hard to do.

๐Ÿบ๐Ÿท๐Ÿฅƒ BEV ALC CATEGORY SHIFTS OVER TIME

Ever wonder how American Beverage Alcohol drinking habits have shifted since the early '80s? We put it all in one visual. Check it out ๐Ÿ‘‡๏ธ

๐Ÿง Our Thoughts

Beer Declines: Starting in 1990, there has been a steady decline in beer share, which accelerated in 2001, and then again in 2016. In fact, there has not been a single year over the past 35 years in which beer gained share year on year.

Spirits are back, baby: In 2025, spirits will overtake wine in volume for the first time since 1986. Back in 2006, wine had a 66% volume lead over spirits. Wild how fast that flipped.

๐Ÿบ ๐Ÿ†• BEATBOX FINALLY CLOSES

As we discussed here a few weeks ago, Beatbox was rumored to be selling to ABI for $700m.

The deal closed last week. ABI bought 85% for $490M.

As a reminder, few brand details below๐Ÿ‘‡๏ธ 

๐Ÿง Our Thoughts

  • Gambit - Someone clearly had an agenda a few weeks ago to leak the original number, not sure it paid off.

  • ABI got a deal โ€“ Roughly ~2x net sales for a brand that fits their route-to-market perfectly. With a lot of big players sitting out M&A right now, there was probably way less competition than there would've been a few years ago.

  • Structure is confusing - Why not just buy the whole thing? The legal complexity alone seems like a headache. Not sure the rationale.

  • Lines continue to blur - Sazerac bought BuzzBallz last year. Now ABI owns another wine brand. At this rate, both could be top 10 wine suppliers in the U.S. within 5 years. Let that sink in.

THIS WEEKโ€™S HOT JOBS IN BEVERAGES

These roles came to us via personal recommendations (not public job boards). Want your open role featured? Email: [email protected] ๐Ÿ‘‡๏ธ 

THANKS FOR READING

The Quench Report is a free weekly newsletter from Thirsty Insights, a beverage alcohol consulting company that serves top clients in strategy, insights, and analytics.

Any questions, please email us at [email protected]