The rise and fall of leading brands - Issue #13

PLUS: Battle of the celebrity acquisitions, Surfside sues ABI, Hot Jobs

Author

Matt Rice
October 27, 2025

Welcome to Issue #13 of The Quench Report, the newsletter that delivers the latest and greatest in Beverage Alcohol that is shaken, not blurred.

What’s on tap for today:;

  • 🥃 How Leading Brand Market Share Evolves Over Time

  • ⚖️ Battle of the $1B Celebrity Acquisitions

  • 🆕 Surfside Sues ABI Over Skimmers Packaging

  • ♨️ This Week’s Hot Jobs in Beverages

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WHAT’S ON TAP THIS WEEK

📊 Oct 27
• Pernod Ricard Annual General Meeting

📊 Oct 28
• Nielsen data through Oct 18
• Circana data through Oct 19

📊 Oct 30
• AB InBev Q3 Results

🥃 HOW LEADING BRAND MARKET SHARE EVOLVES OVER TIME

Late last week, we launched a new visualization on competitive dynamics in the Spirits RTD category (available at http://www.thirstyinsights.com → resources). A snapshot is here 👇️ 

The surprise? High Noon commands nearly 40% market share, a level of dominance that's fairly rare in beverage alcohol. A #1 brand holding 40% of a category only happens once or twice a decade, typically in rapidly emerging segments.

So we asked ourselves: Is this sustainable? We analyzed the three most recent "boom" categories to find out:

🧠 A few reflections on the data:

  • Rapid growth attracts rapid competition. All these categories saw major competitive entrants within 12-18 months of the incumbent's initial success. As newcomers flooded in, the leading brand's market share consistently declined 10-20% by year 3-4.

  • But the story doesn't end there. In Malt Seltzer and Flavored Whiskey, the lead brand eventually regained share as category growth slowed and the industry consolidated around fewer players.

  • Our 2025 prediction: High Noon's market share will drop to the low 30s by year-end, mirroring White Claw's trajectory in 2021 almost perfectly.

The bottom line: Past performance doesn't guarantee future trends, but it gives us a roadmap for how today's emerging categories (Spirits RTD, NA Beer, THC beverages, etc) might evolve.

📈 BATTLE OF THE CELEBRITY-BACKED $1B ACQUISITIONS

Last week, e.l.f. Beauty released unusually detailed financials around their acquisition of Hailey Bieber's Rhode beauty brand.

Why is a beverage newsletter talking about skincare? Two reasons:

  1. The similarities to Casamigos are striking, both brands were ~3 years old at acquisition, and both sold for nearly identical amounts ($700-800M upfront + earnouts totaling $1B)

  2. If celebrities love launching tequila brands, they really love launching beauty brands, so we couldn't resist comparing them

Want to see a comparison - take a look👇️ 

Word has it Total Wine won’t shelve your Tequila unless your founders ride motorcycles

🧠Key Takeaway

For experienced Bev Alc professionals, Rhode's profitability will appear insane. It is extraordinary for a 3-year-old, sub-scale brand to generate 34% operating margins, over double Casamigos' profitability (which is impressive for an emerging beverage alcohol brand in its own right).

The celebrity calculus is clear: Beauty's enhanced margins mean fewer funding rounds and an earlier path to self-funded growth, even at meteoric rates. No wonder every A-lister has a skincare line.

⚖️ SURFSIDE SUES ABI/SKIMMERS FOR TRADE DRESS INFRINGEMENT

As first reported in Beer Marketer’s Insights - Surfside late last week filed suit against AB InBev for “trade dress infringement and unfair competition” regarding their new Skimmers Spirits RTD product.

See for yourself: 👇️ 

Our take? These suits happen constantly in our industry, and we don't have a particular POV on the merits. Generally, the only guaranteed winners are the lawyers.

But we do hope that both legal teams realize this is the perfect opportunity to channel Gabe Lewis from The Office.

Picture it: Hours into the deposition, tensions are high… one lawyer is grilling a senior marketing executive about the decision to put a sun on the Skimmers label. The marketing guy eventually losses it…

If we have to follow trade dress litigation, we might as well have fun with it.

THIS WEEK’S HOT JOBS IN BEVERAGES

These roles came to us via personal recommendations (not public job boards). Want your open role featured? Email: [email protected] 👇️ 

THANKS FOR READING

The Quench Report is a free weekly newsletter from Thirsty Insights, a beverage alcohol consulting company that serves top clients in strategy, insights, and analytics.

Any questions, please email us at [email protected]