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The Cheat Code For The Next Big Thing - Quench Report Issue #27

How Non-Alc Trends Impact Bev-Alc

Author

Matt Rice
February 09, 2026

Welcome to Issue #27 of The Quench Report, the newsletter that raises a glass and delivers the latest and greatest in Beverage Alcohol and the broader Beverage category.

This week's issue examines an underappreciated pattern: beverage trends among teenagers often predict beverage alcohol trends 5-7 years later. We'll show you why tracking what Gen Z drinks today might be your best competitive advantage tomorrow.

What’s on tap for today:

  • 🫗 The Beverage-to-Bev Alc Pipeline: Why Today's Soda Predicts Tomorrow's Seltzer

  • 🥃 Four Roses Acquired By Gallo for $715M

  • 🔥 Hot Jobs Worth Applying To

 🫗 THE BEVERAGE TO BEVERAGE ALCOHOL PIPELINE

Here's a pattern that keeps repeating: what teenagers drink today often predicts what 21+ consumers will drink 5-7 years from now. Not just the flavors, but the format, carbonation levels, and even how they discover brands.

Three recent examples:

  • La Croix → Hard Seltzers (2013-2019) La Croix exploded with teenagers in the early 2010s, peaking around 2016-2017. Those teens learned to love subtle fruit flavors, aggressive carbonation, and wellness positioning. They also discovered La Croix through influencers, not traditional advertising.

    Fast forward to 2019: those same consumers, now 21+, drove White Claw and Truly to massive growth. The product attributes mirrored what they'd loved for years, just with alcohol. Some people in the industry even joked at the time that “White Claw was just La Croix with GNS”. And the influencer-driven marketing playbook? Lifted straight from La Croix.

  • Starbucks → Craft Beer (mid-90s to mid-2000s) Starbucks expanded rapidly in the late 90s and early 2000s, becoming the cool third place for teenagers to gather. This generation developed sophisticated palates for bitter, toasted flavors and learned that beverages could be an experience, not just refreshment.

    Years later, craft beer taprooms replicated the Starbucks model: social gathering spaces with premium, bitter beverages where the story behind what you're drinking matters as much as the taste. The IPA boom wasn't just about hops, it was served to consumers who'd spent their teenage years appreciating bitter complexity in a coffee cup.

  • Prime / Energy → Surfside (early 2020s to today) Prime exploded with teenagers and young adults in early 2020s, becoming the must-have hydration drink in schools nationwide. Those consumers learned to love bold flavors in a non-carbonated, convenient format. When those same consumers started reaching legal drinking age, the breakout success of ready-to-drink cocktails like Surfside wasn't surprising, it was predictable.

    The pattern is clear: teenage beverage preferences are a leading indicator for beverage alcohol trends. Check out the image below 👇️ 

🧠 How to use this idea this week:

  • For emerging brands: Stop optimizing for right now. You want to be right in 5-7 years, not now. Start asking: what are 16-year-olds drinking today, and what would the alcoholic version look like in 2030? Prime, Poppi, Olipop, and Liquid Death are all worth studying.

  • For established brands: The speed of the teenage trend predicts longevity. Starbucks grew steadily for a decade; craft beer followed the same trajectory. Crystal Pepsi spiked and crashed in 18 months; Zima did the same. Slow-building teenage trends create durable beverage alcohol categories. Fads create fads. Which are you chasing?

  • For operators and distributors: If you want to spot the next White Claw before your competitors, spend less time in beverage alcohol trade shows and more time understanding what high schoolers are drinking and how they're discovering those brands.

As always, if you're looking to better anticipate what's next in beverage alcohol by understanding traditional beverage trends, we work with leading brands and distributors on exactly this kind of strategic foresight. Email us at [email protected], happy to chat.

THE RUMORS WERE TRUE - FOUR ROSES SOLD TO GALLO

Late last week came word that Gallo was acquiring Four Roses from Kirin in a $715M deal with a $50M earn-out.

This deal has been rumored for months and marks a significant shift in the bourbon landscape. In October, Four Roses was rumored to be exploring a sale for $1B, so the current price is quite a discount, though not surprising. For those less familiar with Four Roses, we put together a portfolio overview back in November that provides some helpful context:

THIS WEEK’S HOT JOBS IN BEVERAGES

These roles came to us via personal recommendations (not public job boards). Want your open role featured? Email: [email protected] 👇️ 

THANKS FOR READING

The Quench Report is a free weekly newsletter from Thirsty Insights, a beverage alcohol consulting company that serves top clients in data, strategy, insights, and analytics.

Any questions, please email us at [email protected]