Inventory: Continued Concern Over Elevated Levels - Issue #7

PLUS: Back of the envelope - Cannabis Beverages are having minimal impact today on Bev Alc growth

Author

Matt Rice
September 15, 2025

Welcome to Issue #7 of The Quench Report, the Beverage Alcohol newsletter that is shaken and stirred straight to your inbox.

What’s on tap for today:

  • 📈 Review of July Inventory Data

  • 🤏 Back of the envelope - Cannabis beverages are having minimal impact today on Bev Alc growth

  • ♨️This week’s hot jobs in Bev Alc

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WHAT’S ON TAP THIS WEEK

📊 Sept 16
• Nielsen data through Sept 6
• Circana data through Sept 7

📈 Sept 17
• Fed meeting to discuss interest rate cut - now projections are roughly 90% of a 25bps cut, 10% chance of a 50bps cut

🫗 INSIGHTS - JULY WHOLESALER INVENTORY UPDATE

Late last week, the U.S. Census Bureau released updated wholesale beverage alcohol sales and inventory data through July. Key findings:

Sales:

Looking at the last 5 years, the trends don’t look great; sales are down vs the peak in early 2023, and essentially flat vs the bulk of 2021. 👇

However, when you look at longer-term trends over 30+ years, the performance of the past few years aligns with the long-term trend before COVID. 👇️ 

 

The industry is healthier than it appears - sales are right where they would have been predicted to be before Covid - they are just below the Covid “bump” and subsequent noise. It’s not all positive news, though…

Inventories:

Inventories are back at nearly all-time highs 👇️ 

What’s more concerning is that inventories continue to increase as the rate of inventory build is the highest it’s ever been 👇️ 

What this means is that it's likely the next few quarters will see inventory drawdowns in the middle tier, meaning shipments will lag depletions for suppliers by 200-300 bps for a period of time until things get back into balance.

📈 BACK OF THE ENVELOPE - CANNABIS BEVS ARE HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON BEV-ALC

With any news of softness in Bev Alc comes the usual litany of commas… It’s due to GLP1, inventory, the economy, deportations, inflation, Cannabis Beverages, those pesky LDA consumers, moderation, etc.

While the industry is good at listing possible reasons, it's also important to understand their impact. Given The Quench Report’s recent postings on Cannabis Beverages, we decided to do a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation to show simple math that Cannabis Beverages just can’t be impacting Bev Alc to a large degree.

Check it out here 👇

Because there isn’t a consensus on how big or fast Cannabis Beverages are growing, the chart shows a range of metrics. What we consider the most likely are in yellow.

Major takeaway: Even with the poor assumption that Cannabis Beverages are a 100% substitution purchase, simple math would dictate that it’s creating at most a ~10 - 15bps headwind to Bev Alc. Don’t get us wrong—we consider it a huge opportunity, but it's also true that right now, it’s not a primary reason Bev Alc is slowing.

THIS WEEKS HOT JOBS IN BEV ALC

Below is a list of the hottest jobs posted this week that came across our desks 👇️ 

TELL US HOW WE DID WITH TODAY’S EDITION

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